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Epidemic data for fitting

1. Incidence trend scaling fitted as a multiplier for probability of infection
2. Fitting points
  • 50% of current PWID are chronically infected with HCV in 2016
  • 45% of current and former chronically infected with HCV are in stages F0 & F1 in 2016
3. Scaling to a population
  • In 2016 there were 540,000 HCV infected current PWID
  • In 2016 there were 1,380,000 HCV infected former PWID
4. Total population
  • In 2016, 1% of the US adult population (2.4 million) were chronically infected with HCV
5. General population (excluding current and former PWID
  • Subtracting 3 from 4 gives a 2016 general population of 480,000 chronically infected HCV subjects
6. Endemic trend
  • Chronic HCV is assumed to be endemic in the general population and in steady state, i.e. constant
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